When the kingmaker stays home

Abstract

After reviewing the theoretical underpinnings behind the ‘conventional wisdom’ that voters on the left abstain more, this article critically assesses the traditional approach of the so-called ideological bias on turnout. By compiling a new large dataset (197 country elections in Europe), this paper shows that centrist abstention is higher than leftist or rightist abstention. The analysis reveals that a society’s ideological turnout bias reflects its socioeconomic context (traditional explanation), but also that party strategies play a key role. Most importantly, results show that convergence towards the centre triggers a higher centrist abstention. Additionally, this article demonstrates that both socioeconomic and partisan factors have heterogeneous effects across ideological positions. These findings critically challenge prior understanding of the ideological bias on turnout and the impact of parties’ election strategies when pursuing the key centre voter.