Abstract

The first empirical macroeconomic model was constructed by Tinbergen in 1936 for the Netherlands economy. The paper discusses the intellectual and political context within which it emerged, its major characteristics, structural specification, dynamic properties and use for policy analysis. It also re-estimates the model with current estimation techniques. It appears that given the short sample (11 years) simultaneous inconsistency does not make itself felt. The model is a rather refined, dynamic, policy-oriented, empirical, macroeconomic model for an open economy. Since the 1936 model progress has no doubt been made; but less than might be thought.

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