When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world

Hendrik P Van Dalen,Kène Henkens

doi:10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986

Abstract

When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals’ policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers.

Highlights

Population and fertility developments divide governments worldwide
The current paper offers food for thought, as it draws on the international background of population experts who ponder the dilemmas of population growth and decline and who are asked to think about whether governments should intervene in matters of fertility
This paper clearly shows that the political orientation of demographers is important in deciding on the principal issue of whether governments should intervene in matters of fertility at all

Summary

Introduction

Population and fertility developments divide governments worldwide. In the least developed parts of the world, most governments express a willingness to decrease total fertility (De Silva and Tenreyro 2017; UN 2017). The mirror image of this policy stance can be found in the developed world, where belowreplacement fertility causes concern for governments, as populations might decline and age. Some governments have developed policies aimed at increasing fertility, whereas other governments abstain from such interventions. This divide in the sense of urgency has not always existed in policy circles. The latest United Nations (UN) report on population policies around the world gives a very different picture: currently almost 90 per cent of the least developed countries are aiming to lower fertility and the majority of developed countries are set on increasing fertility. From various sides within demography, the replacement fertility level is viewed as having limited relevance to policy practice. Lutz (2014), for instance, has made a strong case that

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