Abstract
I take a decision-making approach to consider ways of addressing the “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world”. Traditional approaches to good decision-making are reviewed. These approaches reduce complex decisions to tradeoffs between magnitudes of probabilities, and outcomes in which the quantity and precision of information are key to making good decisions. I discuss a contrasting framework, called “fuzzy-trace theory”, which emphasizes understanding the simple gist of options and applying core social and moral values. Importantly, the tendency to rely on meaningful but simple gist increases from childhood to adulthood (or, in adulthood, as people gain experience in a domain), so that specific irrational biases grow with knowledge and experience. As predicted theoretically, these violations of rationality in the traditional sense are associated empirically with healthier and more adaptive outcomes. Thus, interventions that help decision makers understand the essential gist of their options and how it connects to core values are practical approaches to reducing “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world” one decision at a time.
Highlights
Is This the Best of Times or the Worst of Times?What is meant by unresolved and dramatic problems? Is this the best of times or the worst of times? In decision making, the paradox of whether human decision making is generally good or bad is well known and is often phrased in terms that juxtapose our triumphs and tragedies [8]
The pattern can be elicited when gains and losses are presented to the same person, the framing effect is weakened because some respondents notice that the gain and loss problems are mathematically equivalent versions of one another
In prospect theory (PT), the perceptions of gains, losses, and probabilities explain diminished overall value for a risky gain when compared to a sure gain and for a sure loss when compared to a risky loss, accounting for the Allais paradox and the framing effect
Summary
What is meant by unresolved and dramatic problems? Is this the best of times or the worst of times? In decision making, the paradox of whether human decision making is generally good or bad is well known and is often phrased in terms that juxtapose our triumphs and tragedies [8]. Consequences, and uncertainties surrounding these decisions are among the considerations that have to be taken into account, which I touch on only glancingly Because they differ in so many ways, reaching the moon and not recognizing Hitler’s threat could be described as apples and oranges. Needed information to make good decisions exaggerates the perceived probability of negative events beyond objective reality (called the “availability heuristic”, [13]) Regardless of whether these are the best of times or the worst of times, there is certainly substantial room for improvement in decision making, because policy makers have taken so little advantage of scientific evidence regarding the brain and behavior. I describe how theories explain the causal mechanisms behind good and bad decisions, and how the latter, in turn, produce many world problems
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