When everyone’s doing it: The relative effects of geographical context and social determinants of health on teen birth rates

Abstract

Geographic disparities in teen birth rates in the U.S. persist, despite overall reductions over the last two decades. Research suggests these disparities might be driven by spatial variations in social determinants of health (SDOH). An alternative view is that “place” or “geographical context” affects teen birth rates so that they would remain uneven across the U.S. even if all SDOH were constant. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to quantify the relative effects of geographical context, independent of SDOH, on county-level teen birth rates across the U.S. Findings indicate that even if all counties had identical compositions with respect to SDOH, strong geographic disparities in teen birth rates would still persist. Additionally, local parameter estimates show the relationships between several components of SDOH and teen birth rates vary over space in both direction and magnitude, confirming that global regression techniques commonly employed to examine these relationships likely obscure meaningful contextual differences in these relationships. Findings from this analysis suggest that reducing geographic disparities in teen birth rates will require not only ameliorating differences in SDOH across counties but also combating community norms that contribute to high rates of teen birth, particularly in the southern U.S. Further, the results suggest that if geographical context is not incorporated into models of SDOH, the effects of such determinants may be interpreted incorrectly.