When Does the Candidate Supported by the Median Voter Win? French Presidential Elections, 1965–2007

Abstract

Abramson (2008) shows that the candidate of the median voter in the French two-round presidential election in 2007 was Francois Bayrou, but that he did not win the election — for the simple reason that he was eliminated at the first round of the balloting and so was not one of the two finalists in the second round. Looking at all eight French presidential elections in the Fifth Republic, over the period 1965–2007, we consider how typical of French presidential elections this 2007 frustration of the median voter was. While we clearly confirm Abramson's conclusions that Bayrou was the candidate supported by the French median voter in the presidential election of 2007, we find this frustration of the preferences of the median voter an essentially unique occurrence in French presidential elections — at least once we take into account differential turnout on first and second round balloting. Using a stylized model of the French political spectrum involving five electoral blocs (extreme left, left, center, right, and extreme right), we then attempt to explain why an electoral system that offers no guarantee of picking a Condorcet winner, and which has a multiplicity of first round candidates, nonetheless seems to do well in selecting Condorcet winners.