When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?

Abstract

Marketing managers routinely use purchase intentions to predict sales. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors associated with an increased or decreased correlation between purchase intentions and actual purchasing. In two studies, we examine data collected from a wide range of different settings that reflect the real world diversity in how intentions studies are conducted. The results indicate that intentions are more correlated with purchase: 1) for existing products than for new ones, 2) for durable goods than for non-durable goods, 3) for short than for long time horizons, 4) when respondents are asked to provide intentions to purchase specific brands or models than when they are asked to provide intentions to buy at the product category level, 5) when purchase is measured in terms of trial rates than when it is measured in terms of total market sales, and 6) when purchase intentions are collected in a comparative mode than when they are collected monadically.