Abstract

A conventional rational choice perspective assumes a positive relationship between close elections and higher turnout because of the increased probability that few votes might actually matter for the election outcome. However, this hypothesis should only hold in electoral districts where one or few candidates are elected. In contrast, close elections should have less of an impact in districts where many members are elected because these districts are characterized by a proportional translation of votes into seats. Testing the foregoing logic, this article evaluates the interactive influence between the closeness of an election and the district magnitude on turnout. The results of the multivariate regression analysis, which includes data for over 600 elections across the globe, support the idea that close elections boost electoral participation in districts with one or few elected members, but not in districts with many elected representatives.

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