When Cumulative Causation Conflicts with Relative Economic Opportunity: Recent Change in the Hispanic Population of the United States

Abstract

The theory of cumulative causation, originated by Gunnar Myrdal and elaborated by Douglas Massey, implies that a given migration stream normally increases over time. Nevertheless, both Myrdal and Massey recognized that a process of cumulative causation could not continue indefinitely. To explain how this process might cease, I advance a two-part hypothesis applying to a group with little education or English fluency, such as Hispanic immigrants to the United States, which is thereby eligible to fill only a limited subset of jobs. First, the higher the percentage of Hispanics in a population in a given destination, the lower the relative economic opportunity in that area. Second, the lower the relative economic opportunity in a given area, the lower the subsequent rate of population growth for Hispanic immigrants in that area. The results of the quantitative analysis suggest that relative economic opportunity did have a major influence in counteracting the effects associated with the theory of cumulative causation.