Abstract
We introduce taxi ridership between the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and large financial institutions with major presences in New York City as a proxy for Fed activity. A market-timing strategy that buys the market portfolio (risk-free asset) when lagged Fed-bank ridership is low (high) earns a 50% larger Sharpe ratio than the market portfolio. The strategy’s superior performance is concentrated around FOMC meetings and Fed-primary dealer interactions. Collectively, our findings are consistent with a monetary policy channel whereby Fed-bank interactions increase when one of the parties possesses monetary policy-related information that will ultimately adversely affect stock prices.
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