When and how do children solve the Weather Prediction Task?

Abstract

The Weather Prediction Task (WPT) can be solved by adults using several strategies dependent on different memory systems. One developmental study reported that 8-12-year-old children can solve WPT-like tasks but, because of inadequate analyses, the cognitive processes involved in solving the task have not been established. The present study aimed to determine at what age children can first solve the WPT and identify the strategies used by children of different ages. We tested 3-12-year-old typically developing children and 20-30-year-old adults on a modified WPT. We performed detailed analyses of performance for each pattern of cue-outcome associations to decipher the strategies used by participants. None of the 3-5.5-year-old children solved the task. About one third of 5.5-7.5-year-old children performed above chance, relying only on the two most predictive cues. In contrast, about 80% of 7.5-12-year-old children performed above chance, relying on a conditional hierarchical strategy. Similar to 20-30-year-old adults, 7.5-12-year-old children considered the highly predictive cues primarily and the less predictive cues secondarily. These findings indicate that the learning strategies used to solve the WPT evolve from middle to late childhood and reflect an increasing ability to use a conditional strategy concomitant with the development of the hippocampus-dependent memory system.