Abstract
In this study, we evaluated the suitability of semi-arid region of Central Morocco for wheat production using Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) considering weather, soil properties and crop management production factors. Model calibration was carried out using data collected from field trials. A quantitative statistics, i.e., root mean square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and index of agreement (d) were used in model performance evaluation. Furthermore, series of simulations were performed to simulate the future scenarios of wheat productivity based on climate projection; the optimum sowing date under water deficit condition and selection of appropriate wheat varieties. The study showed that the performance of the model was fairly accurate as judged by having RMSE = 0.13, NSE = 0.95, and d = 0.98. The realization of future climate data projection and their integration into the APSIM model allowed us to obtain future scenarios of wheat yield that vary between 0 and 2.33 t/ha throughout the study period. The simulated result confirmed that the yield obtained from plots seeded between 25 October and 25 November was higher than that of sown until 05 January. From the several varieties tested, Hartog, Sunstate, Wollaroi, Batten and Sapphire were yielded comparatively higher than the locale variety Marzak. In conclusion, APSIM-Wheat model could be used as a promising tool to identify the best management practices such as determining the sowing date and selection of crop variety based on the length of the crop cycle for adapting and mitigating climate change.
Highlights
Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is one of the most important cereal crops and vital staple food worldwide[1,2], for the reasons that it grows in both the temperate and warmer regions due to its resilience to drought and frosts
The study was conducted in the Marrakech Safi region, which is located in Central Morocco (Fig. 1), covering an area of 41,404 km[2], which represents 6% of the national territory
To assert the validation of the model, we need to examine the fit of the fitted values and errors, and to check the normal distribution line: The points are well fitted by contribution to normality, and the samples follow the normal distribution by perfection
Summary
Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is one of the most important cereal crops and vital staple food worldwide[1,2], for the reasons that it grows in both the temperate and warmer regions due to its resilience to drought and frosts. Application of crop simulation models helps in elaborating the suitability of best management practices to boost agricultural productivity by integrating the interdisciplinary knowledge gained through experimentation and technological innovations in the fields of biological, physical, and chemical science relating to the agricultural production s ystem[31,32,33,34]. They are widely used for decision making and planning in agriculture and can be Scientific Reports | (2021) 11:23173. The overall goal of this study was to evaluate wheat production in Central Morocco as a function of weather, soil properties and crop management using APSIM model
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