Wheat‐based fried snacks shelf‐life prediction using kinetic, probabilistic, and time‐to‐fail models

Abstract

This work aimed to identifing the limit of acceptability in wheat-based fried snacks (WBFS) by consumers; measuring the quality properties of WBFS fried in oil with different levels of antioxidant, stored at different temperatures, and exposure to sunlight; and modeling the shelf-life using kinetic, probabilistic, and time-to-fail approaches. A Box–Behnken design was used to assess the effect of antioxidant, sunlight exposition, and temperature at three levels on moisture changes, peroxide value, puncture strength, and color. The critical values of acceptance/rejection of WBFSs were 5.2% moisture, 25 meqO2/kg, and 10.5 N. Pilosof’s equation described accurately the kinetic of moisture increase. A sigmoidal model correctly fitted the kinetic of peroxide formation. The probabilistic model delimited the acceptance/rejection zones for the product’s shelf life based on rancidity. The time-to-fail model correctly defines the shelf life considering the rancidity or rancidity and crispiness together. The three approaches used to model the shelf life of WBFSs were adequate. Novelty impact statement The acceptability limit of crispiness and rancidity were established for wheat-based fried snacks (WBFS), which were the primary quality properties that define the product’s shelf life. Peroxide value is the best predictor of shelf life with kinetic and probabilistic model approaches. In addition, the time-to-fail model allowed to integrate the crispiness losses and rancidity to determine the shelf life.