Abstract
Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections of how alien species richness and impacts on islands might develop in the future are still lacking. In the absence of reliable projections, expert-based assessments are a valuable tool to investigate the importance of different drivers and pathways and the distributions of potential impacts of future biological invasions. These insights can guide subsequent quantification efforts and inform invasive species management and policy. In this study, we performed a survey among 126 experts in invasion science ranging from scientists to managers and decision makers with a focus on island systems until the mid-21st century. The survey revealed that out of 15 drivers, six were considered important by almost all respondents (>90%). Of these, trade & transport was identified as most important at the introduction stage (99.2%) and land use/cover change as most important at the establishment (96.8%) and spread (95.2%) stage. Additionally, the experts considered that alien species were more likely to be introduced (93.7%) and spread (78.6%) as stowaways than through any other pathway. In general, respondents agreed that the impacts of alien species will increase on all types of islands, particularly on oceanic islands, followed by atolls and continental islands. Within islands, terrestrial ecosystems were assumed to be impacted more severely than marine ecosystems. Finally, the survey hints towards the potential for effective communication, scientific research and increased pro-active management of alien species on islands to reduce their future consequences. Given the major threat represented by invasive alien species on islands, these results provide crucial insights relevant for global and regional conservation efforts.
Highlights
Biological invasions have been identified as one of the major threats to biodiversity worldwide and are an important facet of global environmental change (Maxwell et al, 2016; IPBES, 2018)
Two issues are crucial in understanding island invasions for conservation and scientific purposes: (i) a comparison of trends in alien species richness in mainland and island regions (Seebens et al, 2018); (ii) how environmental and socio-economic factors could change in relative importance over time for driving future invasions
A set of 15 major drivers of biological invasions was selected during a workshop on scenarios for biological invasions held in Vienna, Austria in October 2016
Summary
Biological invasions have been identified as one of the major threats to biodiversity worldwide and are an important facet of global environmental change (Maxwell et al, 2016; IPBES, 2018). Two issues are crucial in understanding island invasions for conservation and scientific purposes: (i) a comparison of trends in alien species richness in mainland and island regions (Seebens et al, 2018); (ii) how environmental and socio-economic factors could change in relative importance over time for driving future invasions. Improved understanding of these issues should lead to better knowledge on how invasion impacts could change over time in magnitude and geographical distribution (Lenzner et al, 2019). Predictors Awareness, Values and Lifestyle Climate Change Biodiversity Loss and degradation Communication and outreach Cooperation, legislation and agreements Demography and migration Eutrophication and Pollution IAS management IAS science Land Use/Cover change Ocean Acidification Recreation and tourism Socio-Economic change Technology and Innovation Trade and transport Threshold coefficients: Strongly disagree| Disagree Disagree| Neutral Neutral| Agree Agree| Strongly agree 2.34–5.99
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