What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800)?

Shadreck Chirikure,Thomas Moultrie,Collett Dandara,Foreman Bandama,Munyaradzi Manyanga,Dong Hoon Shin

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0178335

Shadreck Chirikure, Thomas Moultrie + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178335

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Journal: PloS one	Publication Date: Jun 14, 2017
Citations: 14	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Cape Town, University of Zimbabwe

Abstract

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site’s nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000–1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950.

Highlights

Achieving sustainability in the short- and medium- to long term has emerged as a major global aspiration for the planet
Our two estimation models (Model 1 and Model 2) and associated consistency checks indicated that the population of Great Zimbabwe remained low, with a steady increase throughout the second millennium CE
While all pointers are towards the observation that Great Zimbabwe’s population was very low, the dominant explanatory models were initially framed within the fictional idea of Prester John and Rider Haggard’s ‘lost cities’, and later within that of great empires such as Rome and China

Summary

Introduction

Achieving sustainability in the short- and medium- to long term has emerged as a major global aspiration for the planet. Even if the entire 720 ha of Great Zimbabwe site was occupied in its entirety, a population density of 2,778 per square kilometre still compares favourably with that of a high number of modern towns scattered across Africa, and in many of the world’s regions [5].

Results

Conclusion