What to expect from the price of healthy and unhealthy foods over time? The case from Brazil.

Emanuella Gomes Maia,Renata Bertazzi Levy,Rafael Moreira Claro,Laís Amaral Mais,Ana Paula Bortoletto Martins,Camila Mendes Dos Passos

doi:10.1017/s1368980019003586

Abstract

To measure change in price of food groups over time (1995-2030) in Brazil, considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. Data from the Household Budget Survey (2008-2009 HBS) and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI) were used to create a data set containing monthly prices for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102), from January 1995 to December 2017. Data on price of foods and beverages from 2008-2009 HBS (referring to January 2009) were used to calculate real price over time using the monthly variation in prices from NSCPI. All prices were deflated to December 2017. Foods and beverages were classified following the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. The monthly price for each food group and subgroup was used to analyse changes in prices from 1995 to 2017 and to forecast prices up to 2030 using fractional polynomial models. Brazil. National estimates of foods and beverages purchased for Brazil. In 1995, ultra-processed foods were the most expensive group (R$ 6·51/kg), followed by processed foods (R$ 6·44/kg), then unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients (R$ 3·45/kg). Since the early 2000s, the price of ultra-processed foods underwent successive reductions, becoming cheaper than processed foods and reducing the distance between it and the price of the other group. Forecasts indicate that unhealthy foods will become cheaper than healthy foods in 2026. Food prices in Brazil have changed unfavourably considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. This may imply a decrease in the quality of the population's diet.

Highlights

Methods summary Data from the most recent national Household Budget Survey (2008–2009 HBS) and from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI), both publicly available and collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, were used to create a novel data set containing monthly prices (R$/kg) for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102) between January 1995 and December 2017
The mean monthly price (R$/kg) for each food group and subgroup was estimated considering the acquired amount of these 102 foods and beverages according to 2008–2009 HBS
The organization of data from two different sources into a novel data set allowed a comprehensive analysis of food prices in Brazil, considering the healthy eating concept adopted by the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines

Summary

Methods

Methods summary Data from the most recent national Household Budget Survey (2008–2009 HBS) and from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI), both publicly available and collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, were used to create a novel data set containing monthly prices (R$/kg) for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102) between January 1995 and December 2017. The mean monthly price (R$/kg) for each food group and subgroup was estimated considering the acquired amount (in kilograms) of these 102 foods and beverages according to 2008–2009 HBS. These values were used to analyse changes in price for the period from 1995 to 2017 and to forecast price values up to 2030 (using fractional polynomial models)

Results

Discussion

Conclusion