What's the Value of Partisan Loyalty? Partisan Ambivalence, Motivated Reasoning, and Correct Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Abstract

Partisans vary in the extent to which they rely on their partisan identities when voting. Are partisans who rely less on their partisan loyalties more likely to vote correctly than those who stick with their partisan intuitions? Research on motivated reasoning suggests so, but research focused on the heuristic value of partisanship implies otherwise. We examine this question using evidence from the ANES Time Series (1972–2004) and 2008 ANES Panel Survey. We find that ambivalent partisans, that is, those less reliant on partisanship when deciding, are generally less likely to vote correctly than univalent partisans, that is, those more reliant on partisanship. These results challenge some of the pessimism concerning the democratic competence of partisans as they imply that partisans engaging in directional reasoning can nevertheless perform their duties at the ballot box at least as well, if not better, than those engaged in more systematic and “rational” modes of decision‐making.