Abstract
Analysts have been able to say surprisingly little about the sources of the very volatile yields of long-term U.S. bonds in recent decades. We used surveys of economists' forecasts to decompose long-term bond yields into expectations of future inflation, expected real short-term interest rates, and the expected bond risk premium. Variation in the bond risk premium accounts for most of the variation in yields from period to period, but declines in all three components have contributed to the decline in yields of the past decade and a half.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
