What political institutions support Bus Rapid Transit? Evidence from a survival analysis of 92 cities in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

Decarbonization of urban energy systems will require significant adoption of mass transit infrastructure over the next decades, especially in cities in low- and middle-income countries that are not yet locked into car-centric transportation systems. The political contexts which could enable or even accelerate widespread transit development, however, remain ill understood. To advance our understanding of the relationship between political institutions and low-carbon infrastructure outcomes, this paper leverages a novel dataset of 138 low- and middle-income countries, of which 21 countries adopted 92 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in cities between 1970 and 2017. It examines whether political decentralization and democratic governance, alongside international non-profit organizations, are associated with greater chances of BRT adoption. The results from three sets of survival regressions suggest they are: politically decentralized countries are associated with significantly higher adoption prospects when they are governed democratically. Moreover, countries that host international non-profit organizations advocating for BRT are associated with domestic demonstration projects. These results suggest that political institutions critically condition the adoption of low-carbon infrastructure systems. They caution that demands to empower subnational governments with enhanced regulatory authority ought to be qualified by political regime type. In authoritarian political contexts, decentralization appears to reduce the likelihood of mass transit development and, by extension, the chances of avoiding carbon lock-in.