Abstract
ObjectivesThe purpose of this study is to describe the situation of COVID-19 in European countries and to identify important factors related to prevention and control.MethodsWe obtained data from World Health Statistics 2020 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We calculated the Rt values of 51 countries in Europe under different prevention and control measures. We used lasso regression to screen factors associated with morbidity and mortality. For the selected variables, we used quantile regression to analyse the relevant influencing factors in countries with different levels of morbidity or mortality.ResultsThe government has a great influence on the change in Rt value through prevention and control measures. The most important factors for personal and group prevention and control are the mobility index, testing, the closure of educational facilities, restrictions on large-scale gatherings, and commercial restrictions. The number of ICU beds and doctors in medical resources are also key factors. Basic sanitation facilities, such as the proportion of safe drinking water, also have an impact on the COVID-19 epidemic.ConclusionsWe described the current status of COVID-19 in European countries. Our findings demonstrated key factors in individual and group prevention measures.
Highlights
Since 7 December 2020, there have been 66,243,918 cumulative cases and 1,528,984 cumulative deaths worldwide according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO) on coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Changes in reproduction number (Rt) under different prevention and control measures We plotted the changes in Rt values of 51 countries in Europe
The independent variables were the density of medical doctors/per 10,000 people (X1), the density of medical nursing and midwifery personnel/ per 10,000 people (X2), the density of medical pharmacists/per 10,000 people (X3), GDP per capita (US dollars per capita) (X4), the proportion of the population using safely managed drinking-water services (X5), total tests (X6), the mask use rate (X7), the mobility composite (X8), excess bed capacity for COVID-19 (X9), the ICU excess bed capacity for COVID-19 (X10), travel restrictions (X11), stay-at-home orders (X12), the closure of educational facilities (X13), restrictions on gathering (X14), business closures (X15), non-essential businesses being ordered to close (X16), and the GHS index (X17)
Summary
Since 7 December 2020, there have been 66,243,918 cumulative cases and 1,528,984 cumulative deaths worldwide according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO) on coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic on 12 March 2020; a pandemic is a global public health emergency of high international concern. COVID-19 is an acute respiratory infectious disease transmitted mainly through aerosols and droplets [1], and is characterised by higher infectivity but lower mortality than SARS, so we should strengthen its prevention and control [2]. The chief non-pharmacological prevention and control measures included individual and group prevention. Group prevention mostly encompassed travel restrictions, home isolation, the closure of educational facilities, prohibitions on public gatherings, all commercial activities, and non-essential commercial activities. The effect of prevention and control may be related to medical resources (e.g. doctors, nurses, pharmacists, ventilators, ordinary beds, ICU beds), as well as the country’s economic situation and ability to respond to public health incidents (e.g. gross domestic product [GDP] and global health security [GHS])
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