What Makes Learners Overestimate Their Text Comprehension? The Impact of Learner Characteristics on Judgment Bias

Abstract

It is frequently assumed that learner characteristics (e.g., reading skill, self-perceptions, optimism) account for overestimations of text comprehension, which threaten learning success. However, previous findings are heterogenous. To circumvent a key problem of previous research, we considered cognitive, metacognitive, motivational, and personality characteristics of learners (N = 255) simultaneously with regard to their impact on the judgment biases in prediction and postdiction judgments about factual and inference questions. The main results for the factual questions showed that men, lower reading skill, working memory capacity, and topic knowledge, yet higher self-perceptions of cognitive and metacognitive capacities yielded stronger overestimations for prediction judgments. For inference questions, a lower reading skill, higher self-perceptions of metacognitive capacities, and a higher self-efficacy were related to stronger overestimations for prediction and postdiction judgments. A higher openness was a risk factor for stronger overestimations when making predictions for the inference questions. The findings demonstrate that learner characteristics are a relevant source of judgment bias, which should be incorporated explicitly in theories of judgment accuracy. At the same time, fewer learner characteristics were actually relevant than previous research suggests. Moreover, which learner characteristics impact judgment bias also depends on task requirements, such as factual versus inference questions.