What It Takes to Win on the PGA TOUR (If Your Name Is “Tiger” or If It Isn't)

Abstract

In this study, we show what it takes to win on the PGA TOUR for Tiger Woods and other professional golfers as a function of individual player skill, random variation in scoring, strength of field, and depth of field. When Woods wins, he wins by scoring an average of 0.71 strokes per round less than other winning players. This difference reflects (1) that Woods may play better than other winning players when he wins and (2) that Woods tends to play in tournaments with the strongest fields, which require lower scores to win. To make this assessment, we develop a novel simulation-based estimate of relative tournament difficulty—the mean score per round that it takes to win a PGA TOUR event. We also explore the extent to which players could have won tournaments on the PGA TOUR by playing their normal game, with no favorable random variation in scoring. We estimate that Woods is the only player who could have won events on the PGA TOUR over the 2003–2009 seasons by simply playing his normal game.