What is the Spillover Effect of the U.S. Equity and Money Market on the Key Latin American Agricultural Exports?

Abstract

This paper employs a multivariate constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH model and the VAR-AGARCH model to examine whether the U.S. equity and money market have a volatility spillover effect on the returns of the most important agricultural export products of Latin America over the turbulent 2005–2016 period. These results indicate the strengthening of crossmarket linkages between U.S. equity and money market and agricultural raw material commodities (notably sugar and soy) during the period of an upward trend and financial turmoil.