What Is the Impact of Tectonic Plate Movement on Country Size? A Long-Term Forecast

Kamil Maciuk,Anita Kukulska-Kozieł,Michal Apollo,Paulina Lewińska

doi:10.3390/rs13234872

Abstract

The Earth’s surface is under permanent alteration with the area of some nations growing or shrinking due to natural or man-made processes, for example sea level change. Here, based on the NUVEL 1A model, we forecast (in 10, 25, and 50 years) the changes in area for countries that are located on the border of the major tectonic plates. In the analysis we identify countries that are projected to gain or lose land due to the tectonic plate movement only. Over the next 50 years, the global balance of area gains (0.4 km2) and losses (12.7 km2) is negative. Thus, due to the movements of lithospheric plates, the land surface of the Earth will decrease by 12 km2 in 50 years. Overall, the changes are not that spectacular, as in the case of changes in sea/water levels, but in some smaller countries, projected losses exceed a few thousand square metres a year, e.g., in Nepal the losses exceed 10,000 m2 year−1. Methodologically, this paper finds itself between metric analysis and essay, trying to provoke useful academic discussion and incite educators’ interests to illustrate to students the tectonic movement and its force. Limitations of the used model have been discussed in the methodology section.

Highlights

Land worldwide is a critical and limited resource that is subject to a variety of natural and/or anthropogenic processes and phenomena that cause modifications in areal extent [1].A recent analysis using the Aqua Monitor tool, determined that between 1985 and 2015, the Earth’s surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land, with coastal areas gaining 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land
To determine the impact of tectonics on country area we focused on the 15 large plates whose motion was described by the NUVEL-1A poles (Africa, Antarctica, Arabia, Australia, Caribbean, Cocos, Eurasia, India, Juan de Fuca, Nazca, North America, Pacific, Philippine Sea, South America), which are part of the digital model of plate boundaries presented by [20]
Plate border length for the countries varied from 80 km (Trinidad and Tobago) to 3600 km (Russia), depending on the country size and shape

Summary

Introduction

Land worldwide is a critical and limited resource that is subject to a variety of natural and/or anthropogenic processes and phenomena that cause modifications in areal extent [1].A recent analysis using the Aqua Monitor tool, determined that between 1985 and 2015, the Earth’s surface gained 115,000 km of water and 173,000 km of land, with coastal areas gaining 20,135 km of water and 33,700 km of land. Land worldwide is a critical and limited resource that is subject to a variety of natural and/or anthropogenic processes and phenomena that cause modifications in areal extent [1]. During that 30-year period, the global net change of dry land was positive: 58,000 km globally; 13,565 km in coastal areas [2]. Important anthropogenic contributors to these changes were the creation of artificial islands, coastal reclamation, and the desiccation of natural water bodies Sea), all of which increased land area; increases in water were often associated with the building of large reservoirs or major shifts in large rivers. With respect to natural processes, sea level change has been of one of the most significant determinants in land losses and gains over time. At the peak of the last Ice Age (~20,000 years ago), sea level was 120–130 m lower than today, exposing

Methods

Results

Conclusion