What is the future of the ecosystem services of the Alpine forest against a backdrop of climate change?

Abstract

Mountain forests produce a large number of ecosystem services that are going to be affected by climate change. We are expecting an increase in high altitude species that could result in the decrease in resinous and subalpine species. These changes in species could adversely affect biodiversity and timber production. However, we also observe an increase in productivity that favours the production of energy wood and, at least temporarily, timber, as well as carbon storage. Given the possible rise in extreme climatic events, changes in vegetation could be marked by periods of decline, which will be very detrimental to the economic system, protection against natural hazards and biodiversity. Climate change will also have an indirect effect on the forest by increasing the demand for renewable energy and carbon storage. There is a lot of uncertainty about vegetation change predictions and this makes it difficult to define forest management adaptation strategies. Effective crisis management, monitoring of natural transformations of the forest based on the interaction between research and management (adaptive management) and the explicit factoring in of the concept of uncertainty appear to be essential to the maintenance of the ecosystem services provided by the forest.