What is the future of ecological space in Wuhan Metropolitan Area? A multi-scenario simulation based on Markov-FLUS

Abstract

The contradiction between the ecological environment and economic development restricts the sustainable development of Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA). As an important carrier of the ecosystem in WMA, the change of ecological space can effectively reflect the ecological environment of WMA. Accordingly, based on various development needs and the Markov-FLUS model, this paper simulated the distribution of ecological space in WMA in 2035 under five scenarios, and discussed the characteristics of landscape structure and ecosystem service value of ecological space under five different scenarios. The results show that the Markov-FLUS model can properly simulate the future distribution of ecological space in WMA. Compared with 2020, the scale of ecological space under the natural development scenario (ND), the balanced and coordinated development scenario (BCD) and the ecological space preference development scenario (ESPD) increases, while the scale of the production space preference development scenario (PSPD) and the living space preference development scenario (LSPD) decreases. In the five scenarios, the areas of ecological spatial change are predominantly concentrated in the central urban area of Wuhan, the urban construction area of Ezhou, Huangshi and Huanggang, and the Dabie Mountain area in the northeast of Huanggang. Under the influence of human activities, the landscape structure of ecological space in WMA tended to be smaller in size, simplersize, simpler in boundary, more dispersed in distribution, and more uneven. Water and forest land play a major role in the ecosystem service value of ecological space in WMA, accounting for more than 95% of the value, and mostly play hydrological and climate regulation functions. The sustainable development and protection of ecological space under the BCD mode can provide reference for the policy implementation of sustainable development of territorial space and regional ecological security in WMA in the future.