What is the Future Demand for Petroleum Engineers?

Abstract

At the end of a presentation on BP’s annual energy outlook last year, a petroleum engineering student from Greece asked, “Is a job as a petroleum engineer a good idea for the next decade?” Then BP CEO Bob Dudley responded by saying, “A job or training as an engineer of any kind is so important. There is going to be a huge need for that as you can see from Spencer’s outlook.” He was referring to the presentation made by Spencer Dale, group chief economist for BP, whose outlook showed oil demand likely growing until 2030, and remaining around 100 million B/D through 2050 while natural gas demand continues to rise. But how many oilfield engineers will be working in the decades ahead? A short JPT online story about that question struck a nerve with readers. It was one of the most-read stories online over the past year, with 21,000 views. The most downloaded SPE paper in 2019 on OnePetro was “The End of Petroleum Engineering as We Know It,” which predicted a significant change in what engineers do and the number needed to do it over the long term (SPE 194746). The idea for the paper came when 2016 SPE President Nathan Meehan said he began to have doubts about whether the assurances he was offering when asked that question by students were a realistic appraisal of the future. While he is happy to report that his son and a son-in-law both work in the oil business, he was not sure what he would tell his grandchildren. Exploration and production has always been a business where the risks and the rewards are high, including the danger of layoffs during a downturn. The paper Meehan authored considers how society’s long-term transition to lower-emission energy sources could affect the careers of petroleum engineers. It analyzes what is expected to be a slow-to no-growth industry where digital technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), will enable fewer engineers to do a lot more. “It is likely that AI-based products and services will greatly leverage petroleum engineers, enabling one engineer to do the work previously requiring many,” the paper said. It added that the changes “suggest that engineering jobs in the future are likely to be smaller in number and radically different from today.” The tone of the paper is sobering, but Meehan said what is ending is not petroleum engineering jobs, just long-standing expectations about working in the industry. He said he met many young engineers during his travels as president who should be able to manage the coming changes. “They are digitally savvy, energetic, and concerned about sustainability issues and ways to lower the carbon intensity of oil and gas production,” he said.