Abstract
A simple model of the future earnings of the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) from its existing electricity generating assets yields a present value of around £18.5 billion. An investigation of 15 uncertain variables shows that five of them affect the net worth of the CEGB by more than £5 billion. The government will retain a great influence over four of these five (the rate of retirement of old nuclear stations, the cost of the CEGB's coal, the generating capacity split off from the CEGB, and the price that the CEGB can charge for electricity) even if the CEGB is privatized.
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