Abstract
The amount of building floor space (BFS) plays a key role in the energy and material demand prediction. Unfortunately, BFS estimation has faced the challenge of ineffective and inadequate approaches, and thus reliable data concerning China’s BFS is unavailable. This study proposes a new estimation method for China’s BFS and then estimates historical BFS by type in China from 1996 to 2014. The results show that total Chinese BFS grew from 28.1 billion m2 in 1996 to 61.3 billion m2 in 2014, increasing more than twice, with an annual growth rate of 4.4% from 1996 to 2014. During 1996–2014, urban residential BFS witnessed the highest annual increase rate (9.3%), while the growth rate for commercial and rural residential BFS was lower: 4.4% and 1.6%, respectively. By comparing with available statistics data, this study finds the model deviations are well below 5%, which indicates the reliability of the proposed method and robustness of the results. The proposed method not only can address the deficiencies of statistic yearbook and overcome the shortages of previous estimation approaches but also can derive more accurate and reliable data. This study lays a sound basis for the following study on building stock and building energy efficiency work.
Highlights
The building sector consumes a great amount of energy and resources, and it is an important contributor to the global issues caused by greenhouse gas emissions [1]
With the gradual deepening of urbanization process, there is a trend that more commercial energy will be consumed in China’s building sector, and more carbon emissions will be emitted from those fossil fuels simultaneously in the future
Our research results can be useful for the government and decision makers to set effective building stock plans and building energy-efficiency policies and measures to address the increasing building energy consumption and carbon emissions
Summary
The building sector consumes a great amount of energy and resources, and it is an important contributor to the global issues caused by greenhouse gas emissions [1]. The building sector consumes approximately more than one-third of the final energy use [2,3,4,5]. The main driving force for the growth of building energy demand is the huge volume of the existing building stocks (represented by building floor space (BFS)) [10,11]. With the gradual deepening of urbanization process, there is a trend that more commercial energy will be consumed in China’s building sector, and more carbon emissions will be emitted from those fossil fuels simultaneously in the future. Thereby, the building floor space plays a decisive role in the future energy demand
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