What Is a ‘Policy Insight’?

Abstract

The paper by Kopainsky et al., 2012 walks the long difficult road of rigorous socio-technical analysis before arriving at a simply stated conclusion about the adoption of improved maize varieties: that the existence of a strong reinforcing loop around trust creation is crucial. They say, ‘the social dynamics of trust building has the power to over-ride utility evaluations in the adoption decision’ (Kopainsky et al., 2012 p. 575–589). Certainly, some more detailed actions are necessary but ultimately, if the trust mechanism can be put in place, then ‘adoption of seed from improved maize varieties would become a self-sustaining growth process without the need of further subsidies.’ This is perhaps the key policy insight from the modelling study. The authors state this clearly: ‘From a policy implication perspective, effective adoption stimulation policies should thus focus on measures that build trust in seed from improvedmaize varieties.’ Is that it? Should one be surprised that, after so much effort involving conjoint analysis, formulation of ODEs, and use of empirical numerical data to perform careful parameterization, what results feels just a little like. . .a T-shirt slogan? Is this qualitative description of what is needed for success a ‘policy insight’? The broader point has been made previously: ‘It may seem paradoxical but the results of a quantitative system dynamics study are qualitative insights’ (Lane, 2000, p. 17). So, more generally, should one be surprised that this is what system dynamics produces, that thefield seems to advance the view that only policy insights of this nature can legitimately be generated by modelling studies? This Discussant’s Comment suggests that this is indeed what constitutes a ‘policy insight’ from the perspective of system dynamics—but that legitimate discussion around this position is called for.