What influence farmers’ relative poverty in China: A global analysis based on statistical and interpretable machine learning methods

Abstract

Poverty eradication has always been a major challenge to global development and governance, which received widespread attention from each country. With the completion poverty alleviation task in 2020, relative poverty governance becomes an important issue to be solved in China urgently. Because of a large population, poor infrastructures, insufficient resources, and long-term uneven development raising the living standard of farmers in rural areas is critical to China's success in realizing moderate prosperity. Therefore, identifying the poor farmers, exploring the influence factors to relative poverty, and clarifying its effect mechanism in rural areas are significant for the subsequent poverty governance. Most of the previous studies adopted the method of apriori assuming the factor system and verifying the hypothesis. We innovatively constructed a relative poverty index system consistent with China's actual conditions, selecting all the possible variables that could affect relative poverty based on the existing literature, including individual characteristics, psychological endowment, and geographical environment, and rebuilt an experimental database. Then, through data processing and data analysis, the main factors influencing the relative poverty of farmers were systematically sorted out based on the machine learning method. Finally, 25 chosen influencing factors were discussed in detail. Research findings show that: 1) Machine learning algorithm is proved it could be well applied in relative poverty fields, especially XGBoost, which achieves 81.9% accuracy and the score of ROC_AUC reaches 0.819. 2) This study sheds light on many new research directions in applying machine learning for relative poverty research, besides, the paper offers an integral framework and beneficial reference for target identification using machine learning algorithms. 3) In addition, by utilizing the interpretable tools, the “black-box” of ML become transparent through PDP and SHAP explanation, it also reveals that machine learning models can readily handle the non-linear association relationship.