What if neither randomized control trials nor public voting records are available in a get-out-the-vote field experiment?

Abstract

When American political scientists conduct get-out-the-vote (GOTV) field experiments, randomized control trials and public voting records are the two pillars of these experiments. However, what if neither is available in other countries? For instance, Japanese election commissions are averse to both. To tackle this problem, I propose a second-best solution. I collaborated with the election commission of a municipality in Japan. The election commission sent direct mail (DM) to all 18-year-olds in the municipality and disclosed voting records at the week-of-birth level. Finally, I estimated the treatment effect of the DM on voter turnout using a regression discontinuity design, where I compared the turnout of 18-year-olds with that of 19-year-olds or 17-year-olds. I cannot find any statistically significant evidence showing that the DM increased 18-year-old voters’ turnout. I hope that my setup enables GOTV field experiments in many countries outside the United States so that we can infer the causal effects of GOTV tactics in various contexts.