Abstract
Little is known regarding the time trend of mass shootings and associated risk factors. In the current study, we intended to explore the time trend and relevant risk factors for mass shootings in the U.S. We attempted to identify factors associated with incidence rates of mass shootings at the population level. We evaluated if state-level gun ownership rate, serious mental illness rate, poverty percentage, and gun law permissiveness could predict the state-level mass shooting rate, using the Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model. We also tested if the nationwide incidence rate of mass shootings increased over the past three decades using the non-homogenous Poisson regression model. We further examined if the frequency of online media coverage and online search interest levels correlated with the interval between two consecutive incidents. The results suggest an increasing trend of mass shooting incidences over time (p < 0.001). However, none of the state-level variables could predict the mass shooting rate. Interestingly, we have found inverse correlations between the interval between consecutive shootings and the frequency of on-line related reports as well as on-line search interests, respectively (p < 0.001). Therefore, our findings suggest that online media might correlate with the increasing incidence rate of mass shootings. Future research is warranted to continue monitoring if the incidence rates of mass shootings change with any population-level factors in order to inform us of possible prevention strategies.
Highlights
Mass shootings are rare violent behaviors compared with other violent crimes, these incidents adversely impact the society as a whole
According to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) level, the model that focused on the biannual incidence rate may have a better goodness of fit than the model that focused on annual incidence rate (AIC levels were 93 and 122, respectively)
The results suggest that the neither proportion of suicides by firearms, poverty rate, nor serious mental illness rate, could significantly predict the state-specific mass shooting rate
Summary
Mass shootings are rare violent behaviors compared with other violent crimes, these incidents adversely impact the society as a whole. A better understanding of risk factors associated with such violent behaviors could provide an initial key to possible intervention strategies. There have been only a handful of published studies that identified risk factors for mass shootings. The limited published findings may be, at least in part, attributable to their rarity that strains the analytic techniques.
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