Abstract
Air pollution in China attracts the world’s attention, so it is important to study its driving factors for air pollutants. The combined Production Decomposition Analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (PDA–LMDI) model is applied to construct a regional contribution index in this study to explore the regional differences in factors affecting sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter with diameter not greater than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) from 2005 to 2015 in China. The regional emission coefficient had a great inhibitory effect, which reduced SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by 25,364.9, 10,449.3, and 11,295.3 kilotons (kt) from 2005 to 2015, respectively. For this inhibitory effect, the degree to emission reduction was great for North and East China, followed by South and Central China, and small for Southwest. Northwest. and Northeast China. The regional technical efficiency, technology improvement, capital-energy substitution and labor-energy substitution effects each reduced SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by about 3500, 3100, and 1500 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. For the regional technical efficiency and technology improvement effects, the degree to emission reduction was great in East and Central China, and small in South Northwest and Northeast China. For the regional capital- and labor-energy substitution effects, the degree of emission reduction was great for North East and Central China, and small for Northwest and South China. The regional output proportion effect increased SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by 1211.2, 320.1, and 277.8 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. The national economic growth had a relatively great promoting effect and increased SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by 26,445.5, 23,827.5, and 11,925.5 kt from 2005 to 2015, respectively. Each region should formulate relevant policies and measures for emission reduction according to local conditions.
Highlights
Studies suggested that the health and economic losses caused by particulate matter with diameter not greater than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) emissions for Beijing were 4.83–6.63 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY) in 2014, and 4.32–6.32 billion CNY in 2015 [1]
The energy saving and emission reduction targets for 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period issued in 2016 states that, by 2020, China’s energy intensity, and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will decrease by 15%, 15%, and 15%, respectively, compared with the 2015 level; the total fossil energy consumption would be within 5 billion tce
Zhou and Ang, Zhang et al, Wang et al, and Chen and Duan decomposed the changes in carbon emissions into factors such as the economic growth, energy intensity, technological progress, technological efficiency, and scale effects based on the production decomposition analysis (PDA), and the results indicate that the economic growth and scale effects promoted carbon emissions, whereas technological progress, technological efficiency and energy intensity curbed the emissions [24,25,26,27]
Summary
As for China, there are large disparities in regional economic development, industrial structure, and resource endowment because of vast land area, which leads to extreme unbalances in regional energy consumption and air pollutants. The energy saving and emission reduction targets for 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (from 2016 to 2020) issued in 2016 states that, by 2020, China’s energy intensity, and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will decrease by 15%, 15%, and 15%, respectively, compared with the 2015 level; the total fossil energy consumption would be within 5 billion tce. Specific emission reduction targets for each province or municipality have been allocated at present In this regard, considering factors affecting the energy intensity from China’s regional perspectives, the driving and inhibitory factors for China’s air pollutants and regional differences in effects on air pollutants are examined, so as to provide the theoretical basis for formulating reasonable air pollutant reduction policies based on different regions
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