Abstract
This article analyzes the predictors of preferential voting in flexible list systems, focusing on political sophistication, voting rules and district size. It relies on a field experiment carried out in Portugal on the 2015 legislative election day. Wefound that the effect of district size depends on the nature of the voting rules introduced (optional or compulsory preferential voting). Also, political interest tends to lose its significance when preferential voting is compulsory. Thus, preferential voting does not constitute an obstacle for those with less political sophistication to express a vote, especially when the voting rules make preferential voting compulsory.
Highlights
There are substantial differences in the ballot structure of electoral systems among European countries and elsewhere (Ortega, 2004; Renwich and Pilet, 2016), and research has shown that this may affect turnout, voting behavior, election results, quality of representation, and even satisfaction with democracy (Shugart, 2001; Farrell and McAllister, 2006; Pereira and Andrade Silva, 2009; Bosch and Orriols, 2014; Sanz, 2017; Söderlund, 2017; Riera and Bol, 2017)
In this article we analyze how the likelihood of expressing preference votes is influenced by political sophistication, ballot structure, and district magnitude and how these last two variables interact with the levels of political sophistication of voters
The results of an experiment carried out in the 2015 legislative elections in Portugal are used to further our understanding of flexible list voting
Summary
This article analyzes the predictors of preferential voting in flexible list systems, focusing on political sophistication, voting rules and district size. It relies on a field experiment carried out in Portugal on the 2015 legislative election day. We found that the effect of district size depends on the nature of the voting rules introduced (optional or compulsory preferential voting). O presente artigo analisa os fatores explicativos do voto preferencial em sistemas de lista flexível, com enfoque na sofisticação política, regras de votação e magnitude do círculo eleitoral. Verificou-se que o impacto da magnitude do círculo eleitoral depende das regras de votação utilizadas, que tornam o voto preferencial obrigatório ou opcional. O voto preferencial não constitui um obstáculo ao voto por parte dos cidadãos com menores níveis de sofisticação política, especialmente quando as regras fazem com que a expressão de preferências seja obrigatória. palavras-chave: voto preferencial; estudo experimental; comportamento eleitoral; sistema eleitoral
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