Abstract
I study if changes in total value of debt ten years earlier explain expected value or mean of changes of value of US equity markets in a long run. I find that, when total value of debt is controlled over time, mean of quarter, annual, five-year and ten-year changes of Russell 3000 and S&P 500 price indices decreases near to zero. Results are statistically significant at 5 to 0.1 % level. I thus conclude that changes in total value of debt ten years earlier do explain expected changes in value of US equity markets in a long run.
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