Abstract
It is clear that in the transition out of the COVID-19 crisis in Colombia there will be great need for formal job creation. One source that has been widely discussed in policy circles is strengthening linkages of Colombian firms with Global Value Chains (GVCs). Another source that has received recent attention, and deservedly so, is digital infrastructure development (DID)—which can boost telework and virtual human capital accumulation. Reduction in poverty and inequality through more and better formal employment is an important aspect of a jobs and economic transformation (JET) agenda. In this paper, we explore—through a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) and a microsimulation framework—to what extent reforms of the type envisioned in the JET agenda and which could generate GVC linkages, as well as through DID, for Colombia, and we project their impact on poverty and inequality up to 2030. Our findings show limited impact of the three types of policy changes considered for GVCs—namely (i) fall in barriers for seamless business logistics, (ii) reductions in tariffs, and (iii) lower barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI). The impact of DID on inequality is also moot. There is however a modest impact on poverty reduction in the combined policy of digital infrastructure with a boost in skilled labor. This finding can be linked to different factors. First, there are relatively few direct jobs created to benefit households with low levels of human capital. Second, there might be indirect job creation through backward linkages to local suppliers by firms linked to GVCs, but this effect would be a general equilibrium effect that our CGE model with a partial equilibrium microsimulation distributional module does not fully capture. Third, the positioning of Colombian firms to latch onto GVCs, and also generate demand for local intermediate inputs and services, is not optimal. Fourth, DID may generate more general labor market opportunities through telework and virtual learning expansions but could also induce larger wage gaps as the skill premium rises so that the net effect on inequality is ambiguous.
Highlights
It is well understood that job creation has a crucial role so that economic growth translates to better outcomes in key areas of human well-being as highlighted in the World Development Report (World Bank 2013)
We report the impacts of COVID-19 and the recovery pattern associated with Global Value Chains (GVCs) and digital infrastructure development (DID) reforms on poverty and inequality post-pandemic
The labor market components of that model are described by Bussolo et al (2011), and a global trade analysis program (GTAP) module was included for the external sector since the policy changes included customs enhancements, tariff declines, and lower barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
Summary
It is well understood that job creation has a crucial role so that economic growth translates to better outcomes in key areas of human well-being as highlighted in the World Development Report (World Bank 2013). The vulnerability associated with having more than half of the workforce in the informal sector is being laid bare by how COVID-19 lockdowns have exacted a toll on workers unable earn a living and with scant access to social security safety nets. Those informal workers, and others in manual (including hospitality services) occupations, in contrast with employees in the modern sector, have jobs on the wrong side of the digital divide—which are not amenable to telework and do not have provisions for health-related benefits
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