Abstract
In order to identify the causes of China’s new business cycle patterns, such as an obvious downward shift and reduced fluctuations under the ‘New Normal’, this paper develops a large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a unified framework for incorporating technology, investment, trade, economic policy and financial volatility. The main conclusions are as follows. First, as to the causes of the downward shift, the current contraction phase of business cycles is mainly due to narrowing economic policy space, decelerating export growth and higher financial volatility. Secondly, as to the contributors to business cycle fluctuations, export growth deceleration is the main contributor to the current contraction phase of business cycles, while financial volatility is very likely to be a key driver of future business cycle fluctuations. Finally, as to China’s future business cycle patterns, it tends to fluctuate less considering the effects of numerous temporary shocks have emerged so far.
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