What drives car use in Europe

Abstract

The methodology is based on the results of a recent EU-wide travel survey that maps user preferences and on the application of a Random Forest classification model that explains the interaction of the main variables that affect these choices. The results of the analysis suggest that it is probably too early to assume that car travel demand is close to a peak throughout Europe. It would be more accurate to claim that a plateau has been reached in a few EU Member States with a developed economy, high car ownership rates and slowly changing demographic profiles. Evidence shows that in some of these countries car use has peaked. However, significant growth in car use should be expected in Eastern Europe. The trends concerning the use of passenger cars are certainly not uniform across the EU since each Member State has its own socio-economic conditions and follows a different path as regards car dependency. In addition, some of the indications of changes in trends can be circumstantial or temporary, as for example the impacts that the economic crisis may have on car ownership and use. Others are long term and perhaps not clearly visible yet. The changing structure of the economy, the longer periods of education for the young, the more fragmented and deregulated labour market and the changing cultural values (i.e. the high value of digital connectivity) may be gradually changing the role of the car in the society in the long term, but there is still not sufficient evidence to suggest that they already are having an impact throughout Europe. Part of the impact of the factors analysed here may simply be the result of postponing decisions related to car use. However, even postponement alters the total level of demand, for if one age group now makes fewer trips than it did before, it lowers the overall level of demand. Evidence also shows that the young groups who are now postponing driving a car do not reach the levels of car use in their 30s and 40s that the generation before had. Some who postpone using the car will forever abandon car driving.