What determines the settlement intention of rural migrants in China? Economic incentives versus sociocultural conditions

Abstract

The international literature has continuously debated over what factors – economic incentives or socio-cultural conditions – are more important when migrant populations make settlement vs. return migration decisions. China's urbanization policy recently took a sharp turn toward encouraging full integration and permanent settlement of rural migrants in cities. Yet policymaking to date has relied on limited empirical evidence on determinants of migrant settlement intention. Using data derived from a twelve-city survey conducted in 2009, this paper investigates the extent to which economic incentives and socio-cultural conditions may determine the settlement intention of rural migrants in urban China. Regression analysis reveals that, although migrants with better human capital are more inclined to settle down in cities, socio-cultural attachment plays an equally, if not more important role in determining migrant settlement intention. Meanwhile, while the settlement intention of the first-generational migrants is more driven by the socio-cultural conditions, economic incentives are more important for the new-generation rural migrants. We thus call for more targeted policy design that takes into account such intergenerational differences.