What determines the intensity of magnetospheric substorms?

Abstract

One of the central issues in substorm research is what determines the substorm intensity. Through an introduction on what constitutes a magnetospheric substorm, we discuss several parameters which are available to measure the substorm intensity. In terms of ionospheric quantities, we have the auroral electroject indices, the total current in the westward auroral electrojet, the area of bright aurora, the maximum poleward advance of the auroral bulge, and the duration of auroral substorm activities. In terms of magnetospheric quantities, we have the innermost location of the substorm injection boundary and the amount of current reduction in the cross-tail current within the substorm current wedge. A measure reflecting substorm activities in both the ionosphere and the magnetosphere is the total substorm energy dissipation but its drawback lies in the difficulty of assessing it accurately if the energy loss due to plasmoids is to be included. We also discuss the predictability of substorm intensity, which leads us to the issue of whether a substorm is a directly-driven or an unloading process. The recent success in predicting the auroral electrojet index from solar wind parameters with a cross-correlation of ~ 0.9 suggests that substorm activities over a long time scale are primarily directly-driven while those over a short time scale are governed by impulsive unloading processes. This understanding allows us to reconcile the apparently conflicting dual nature of magnetospheric substorms.