Abstract
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisions. In both cases it seems illogical for the weaker side to persist in the conflict if it will eventually lose. In the case of animal contests analyses of the links between opponent power and contest duration have provided insights into what sources of information are available to fighting animals. I outline the theory of information use during animal contests and describe a statistical framework that has been used to distinguish between two strategies that individuals use to decide whether to persist or quit. I then apply this framework to the analysis of interstate wars. War duration increases with the power of winners and losers. These patterns provide no support for the idea that wars are settled on the basis of mutual assessment of capabilities but indicate that settlement is based on attrition. In contrast to most animal contests, war duration is as closely linked to the power of the winning side as to that of the losing side. Overall, this analysis highlights a number of similarities between animal contests and interstate war, indicating that both could be investigated using similar conceptual frameworks.
Highlights
In studies of animal contest behavior, analogies with human conflict between states are frequently used
What determines war duration? War duration increased with winner composite index of national capability (CINC) (F1,37.5 = 6.6, P = 0.015) and loser CINC (F1,23.501 = 5.9, P = 0.02) and there was a non-significant trend for a decrease with relative CINC (F1,33.4 = 3.2, P = 0.08) (Figure 2)
On average, the stronger side is more likely to be greater in the CINC index [58] and all of the predictors in this study had a significant effect on war outcome, in the expected direction
Summary
In studies of animal contest behavior, analogies with human conflict between states (wars) are frequently used. The war analogy is used in empirical studies, often because a specific model is under test I describe how thinking about animal contests in this way has been central to the development of the field, and I outline some key similarities and differences between human warfare and animal contests. I apply a statistical framework developed to study assessments and decision making during animal contests to data on human warfare. This will show whether war is amenable to analysis in a similar way to animal contests. The application of animal contest theory might provide insights into the dynamics of war
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