What determines governments’ response time to COVID-19? A cross-country inquiry on the measure restricting internal movements

Paulo Reis Mourao,Elina De Simone

doi:10.1515/openec-2020-0116

Abstract

Abstract After the appearance of the first COVID-19 cases and deaths, countries’ responses were enacted at different points in time. This paper explores the factors behind the timeliness of travel restriction policies at the onset of the pandemic. Using instrumental variable techniques on a sample of 149 countries, our empirical exercise shows that while urban population and political stability are conducive to a prompt activation of a government’s lockdown policy after initial cases, a country’s wealth and the rule of law may produce an opposite effect. When the time from first deaths is considered, the presence of a female leader, net migration levels, voice and accountability, and political stability are associated with a quicker launch of a domestic travel restriction policy, while democracy and a country’s wealth may represent an obstacle to an immediate policy activation.

Highlights

The spread of COVID-19 has been an enormous challenge for governments worldwide
In the first analysis (Table 1), we look at the distance between the first case of COVID-19 infection in each country and the establishment of “lockdown”
In the second analysis (Table 2), we look at the distance between the first death of a national citizen infected with COVID-19 and the establishment of “lockdown” in the country

Summary

Introduction

The spread of COVID-19 has been an enormous challenge for governments worldwide. In order to contain the spread of the virus, avoid the overload of health facilities and counteract the socio-economic effects of the disease, countries have launched non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) (e.g., school closures, travel restrictions, or even complete lockdowns) which have differed among countries by typology, timeliness, enforcement, and field of application (Ferguson et al, 2020). Al., 2020 for a review by economic sector), only a restricted group of papers has focused on possible determinants of government measures to tackle the pandemic (e.g., Aksoy et al, 2020; Ferraresi et al, 2020b; Frey et al, 2020). We fill this gap by providing an inquiry into the conditions favoring or delaying governmental responses, an argument which, as far as we know, is rather new in the debate around motivations and effectiveness of government measures against the pandemic.

Timeliness and government measures against COVID-19

Methods

Results

Conclusion and further challenges