What Contributes to Change and Stability in Individual-level Attitudes towards Britain’s Membership of the EU? An Analysis of the British Election Panel Studies, 1987-1992 and 1992-1997

Abstract

The sources of support for the European Union amongst individuals have been studied exhaustively in recent years, but those factors which contribute to stable and unstable opinions have received less scholarly attention. This article uses the best available panel data to assess which factors contributed to both stable and unstable opinion on the European issue in Britain during a period when the major parties were in the process of revising their positions and we might also expect individuals to change their views. Analysis of the British Election Study Panel Studies shows that there is apparently significant individual-level change between 1987-1992 and 1992-1997. Using multinomial logistic regression estimation, this article then assesses which particular sociological and psychological factors are associated with stable and unstable views between 1987-1992 and 1992-1997. It shows that particular individual-level characteristics are related to stable and unstable opinions in the two periods examined here. The paper represents a contribution to the fuller understanding of the social and psychological underpinnings to individual-level attitudes on the European issue.