What caused fertility variations by settlement in Transylvania at the time of industrialization?

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate in the literature regarding the causes behind fertility transition. Especially, the relative importance of economic modernization versus cultural adaptation is hotly debated. The paper takes Transylvania, the eastern part of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy as an example. The period of 1880–1910 was a time of fast modernization and industrialization in Transylvania, and it created large territorial differences in economic development. The ethnic and religious composition of the area is versatile; mainly Orthodox Romanians, Catholic Hungarians, and Protestant Germans populated the area. Data A cross-sectional database has been created by matching census and vital statistics records for 4112 settlements, for the 1900–1910 period. Method OLS regression is used to model crude birth rates by settlement. The factors affecting fertility are modeled using the Easterlin–Crimmins framework. Results An explanation placing economic factors (demand and supply) in first place, but accepting the secondary role of innovation factors as barriers to implement fertility regulation, fits the data about Transylvania well. Discussion Previous research results regarding Hungary could not show the effect of some socio-economic variables on fertility, due to the high level of aggregation. They favoured cultural explanations, and shown Hungary as an exception to the rules of demographic transition. In contrast, this paper shows that the classic explanatory factors like infant mortality, migration, literacy, and secularization do explain fertility differentials in Transylvania at the turn of the 20th century.