What can we learn from severity index on flight data monitoring? Analysis of safety resilience in flight operations during COVID-19 disruptions

Abstract

The unexpected spread of the pandemic raised concerns regarding pilots’ skill decay resulting from the significant drops in the frequency of flights by about 70%. This research retrieved 4761 Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) occurrences based on the FDM programme containing 123,140 flights operated by an international airline between June 2019 and May 2021. The FDM severity index was analysed by event category, aircraft type, and flight phase. The results demonstrate an increase in severity score from the pre-pandemic level to the pandemic onset on events that occurred on different flight phases. This trend is not present in the third stage, which indicates that pilots and the safety management system of the airline demonstrated resilience to cope with the flight disruptions during the pandemic. Through the analysis of event severity, FDM enables safety managers to recommend measures to increase safety resilience and self-monitoring capabilities of both operators and regulators. Practitioner summary: The onset of the pandemic led to a rise in the severity of flight data monitoring events in a large airline, likely linked to a lack of operational practice and skills decay. This was demonstrated across different flight phases and aircraft types. In the settled pandemic period, the severity index returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the resilience of individual pilots and safety management systems is critical to operational safety. HIGHLIGHTS The FDM event severity scores significantly increased following the pandemic onset, especially for event categories involving pilot core competencies. The FDM event severity scores stagnated or decreased during the later pandemic stage indicating resilience among the airline pilots and the airline’s safety management system. The airline and pilots demonstrated resilience by effectively mitigating the effects of proficiency decay which took place as the pandemic started. FDM analysis has shown to be effective in establishing a proactive SMS programme to mitigate the negative impacts of the pandemic on aviation safety.