What can keep euro area inflation high?

Abstract

SUMMARY A central bank that faces inflation above target may fail to bring it down. This article discusses six ways in which this happens because the central bank is dominated by: misjudgement, expectations, fiscal policy, financial markets, recession fears, or external forces. It applies this approach to the challenge facing the ECB in 2023–24. The hope is that the factors identified can serve as warning signs for what to avoid.