What Can I Do for You, the Thirsty Planet

Abstract

Water is an essential commodity upon which all life on Earth depends. According to the United Nations, one quarter of the world's population experience water scarcity. Serious water scarcity will block social development and endanger human health .In this paper, I establish model to help figure out the problem of water scarcity. In the first part, I used the analytic hierarchy, by looking at the bottom of the data and determine the weight of each layer to calculate the water demand. In the same way, I can get the total amount of water supply, and with (the water supply, the water demand) for the coordinates of the point in the coordinate system of 1 by 1 square area, I introduce a new parameter - the water stress indicator to divided the square area into several small areas. So that I can determine the extent of water scarcity in the region through the location of the point. In the second part, I chose Shandong Province, China as a severe water shortage area, and chose the Liaoning Province and Jiangxi Province as a comparison, bring the data into the model, by its position validates that our model is correct and universal significance. By substituting the three cities' data in, I found that the results obtained are in good agreement with the water map, which means our model is universal and correct. This model can be used to analyze the current situation of water resources in a region, also can be used to predict future trends. The disadvantage is that the water is a necessity of life, so I ignore the impact of price factors on it, which may cause minor errors. 1. Analysis of the Problem If I want to access and predict the situation of water, the reason for the lack of water must be determined. The reason is divided into two sorts. One is physical scarcity, this kind of shortage is because that urban and industrial water demand exceeds the capacity of local water. The other is economic scarcity, Economic scarcity is where water exists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of clean water. There is another kind of scarcity, the water in some regions can't reach the domestic water standards because the increasing serious pollution, named pollution-induced water shortage, I divide it into the category of economic scarcity. As for water demand, I divide it into four parts including domestic demand, agriculture demand, industrial demand and ecological demand. There are several factors that constitute each part, and every factor consists of application amount, dissipation amount and emissions. So I can build a model and use all factors that influence demand to calculate total demand in a region. In the case of ignoring price changes, when the supply of water is equal to the demand, they reach an equilibrium. This balance is the ideal state. The status that supply is greater than demand will cause resource waste, named foam of resources. On the other hand, the status that supply is less than demand will lead to water scarcity. Water scarcity is the main problem to be solved in this article.