What bulk material production is possible on a transition to net zero emissions by 2050 with limited zero emissions resources?

Abstract

Global production of bulk materials such as steel, paper, and aluminium has tripled over the past three decades and decarbonising their production is a difficult challenge. The transition to net zero emissions depends on three key zero emissions resources, non-emitting electricity, biomass, and carbon storage. This paper develops a model to anticipate how likely deployment of these three resources will constrain bulk material production on the transition to net zero emissions by 2050. The results predict that 2050 supply of steel, paper and aluminium will be up to 40% lower than demand. To address this shortfall, policy should promote a more rapid deployment of zero emissions resources in parallel with the strategies of material demand reduction. SynopsisThis paper quantifies potential production levels of aluminium, steel and paper on a trajectory that achieves net zero emissions by 2050 given constraints on zero emissions resources.