What are the roles of species distribution models in conservation planning?

Abstract

The development of species distribution models (SDMs) has benefited biodiversity conservation through their linkage of science to policy and decision processes. These models have evolved to provide scenarios of future landscapes based on known and projected environmental parameters. Whereas there are many caveats to their use, the persuasive power of the models for conveying the consequences of environmental change to the non-science community is immense. Scientists are obliged to convey the uncertainty of the futures depicted in their models, but also to involve the stakeholders who will shape those future conditions. Stakeholders can identify the natural resources they want to sustain, voice their priorities in environmental policy, and articulate the range of solutions they are willing to accept. The creation of alternative futures is an academic exercise if not linked to real viable decisions concerning important resources. SDMs only reach their full potential when they bring together scientists, public stakeholders and policy makers, and are used as an adaptive management tool to understand complex landscapes that are undergoing short- and long-term change.